Why the next Recession doesn't matter | Stock Market Analysis | S&P 500 Outlook

– Hi friends, I have done multiple videos on why the stock market will keep going up and the last video being this one up here. Well, the market has still been going up. I know it sounds a little bit crazy but I've given you the facts. I given you sources after sources but somehow I didn't address
everybody's concerned. Whenever I debunk fears, the next day new fears
will keep coming in. I'm getting a little bit tired. So the goal of this video is this, I will permanently set your mind straight, not some sense into you and perhaps this will let you focus better
on more important issues. I know you've been through
this as an investor is hundred percent that
you will keep yourself up to date with the news. When you check the news you will see like this, this and this. I don't care who you are. You could be either a fund manager managing billions of dollars or an investor who just
got started investing. This kind of news is going to
stir up some kind of emotion. I seen some comments coming in saying they were selling their
shares seeing these news. This trigger me to make so many videos to educate and shift your focus. It's funny when the videos with more views are the ones who nagging at you. Maybe I should be doing video
shouting at you, "Just do it." I could maybe get another million views. Before I move on, we
appreciate the early thumbs up. It helps a lot to tell YouTube reach to more people, thank you. I think comments or comments thanking me saving your portfolio, my videos that prevented you from selling, you edit more stock on the
way down etc, too many. I'm really happy seeing these comments. Each video I do takes plenty of work and it makes all this work worthwhile. So the point is one day, one day the stock market is going to do the same shit over again and
I foresee myself panicking. And I'm not panicking for me, I'm panicking for your portfolio. So the goal in this video
is to open your mind with the truth. Set your mind straight and
to be an awesome investor. Despite my videos, there are still some of you clicking the sell button
and taking the loss and holding cash. As the stock goes up, you ask me, is it too late? This is FOMO, Fear Of Missing Out. I'm not too sure about you. I've been in your shoe and it sucks. Taking the loss and seeing
your money fly away. I know how it feels. That's why I take the a lot
of effort to do such videos. So try history every year, every month, every week, there are news. Some good, some bad. Do you agree with me on this? So how do you remain calm? How do I remain calm? How do I make the right decisions? So why despite high unemployment, riots, trade war, politics. I seem to mostly make the right call. As usual, let's go to the graph. I'll be laying major
events on a line graph of the world stock market
returns to help us reflect on like some of the difficult
financial situations. So this is like Q3 of 2018. And there are quite some
negative news over here like grease beer lots are going to end and you realize the entire quarter, there's always funny news. If you will look back at 2018 through the entire past
12 months from Q3, 2018. There are so many negative news and yet the markets do move like sideways and a little bit up at the end of it. You see stuff like Congress passes memo spending bills ever shut down. So this is 2018. There are so many crap that
happened throughout 2018. So let's look at 2019. This is Q3 of 2019. And if you look here, there are so many bad news along the way. Global oil prices goes into a bear market. Dow Shods has 800 points in
the biggest job of the year. And he goes on, so many news and if you look
back at the entire 2019, this is the timeline for it. So many bad news. So Brexit, so many bad news. Brexit indexes close to
worse yearly losses to it, despite all this news, and yet the market still went up from this point to this point. Still went up. If you look at the longer term, is still going up. Let's take these two even
longer term until 1970. All these years that has passed by us, there are so many things that
happen including SMP down 43%. Remember we just went
through like 20% or 30%, which is not much SMP was down 43% before. They were black Mondays. These are like the worst
shit that happened. Remember the Y2K Scare? I lived through the. com bubble 911. We've been through all this crap. And still the stock market is up here despite all these headlines happening. So if you ask me regarding the
recent news is nothing new. It's just humans being humans, okay and the graph reflects on some of the difficult financial events that have occurred over the
past few decades like wars, financial crisis, high inflation,
significant bear markets, like the one I showed
you 43% among others. So when all those events occurred, the market often reacted negatively but in the short term. Sometimes significantly,
like the recent COVID as one would expect. Yet, market eventually recovered and proceeded to a new height. So while the stock market
often react adversely to events in the short term, investors soon recognize
the fundamental value of the companies that
make up the stock market. After all, if you strip away everything. The stock market is just
a bunch of companies. If you don't panic or
try to time the market as I've been telling you all this while, you'll be well positioned to weather storms over the long term. These headlines do not
explain the market returns. Instead, the surface
reminder that investors should view daily events
from a long term perspective and avoid making
investing decisions solely based on the news. The second point I want
to cover in this video is how do you look at money? Like all the money in the
world add up together. So I took a long time to do this chart up. These are the sources I put it
up here you can go and check. So these are all the money
in the world added together. So the blue column here
refers to the real estate. So how much real estate
are there in the world? So up every value of every building, it becomes roughly 43%. Stocks is in red here. So stocks make up a 14% . Gold makes up about 1.7% . Cash makes up 1%. So what is cash? Cash is basically the
money in your wallet. Now that dollar note. So you add up everything. Everybody's cash in a wall
in your wallet, yeah, 1%. Don't have more cryptocurrency. cryptocurrency was such a small line that I didn't even put in the chart. The next thing is that debt. Debt refers to like government
debt, your personal debt, all together, all the
debts all over the world, you can go to IIF Debt
Monitor to check this out. So basically, this is all
the debt in the world. So looking at this pie chart here, I want you to remember something. Money doesn't disappear,
money is transferred. So for example, during the
recent stock market crisis, this portion got less but where did the money go to? The money would have
probably went into bonds. So this under the debt section where bonds are usually
classified as a safe haven. I will show you in a chart. So this is the long term treasury bond. So from here what happened, the bonds shot up by a lot. So the stock shrank the debt increase, maybe some went to the real estate, maybe more people pile up on cash, but basically a lot of money here was transferred out. Adding to that central reserve pumping more money into bonds. So if you do let me
redraw the entire chart, you will look something like this. Why does the central bank does this? Because central banks cannot directly buy stocks or real estate. This is called market manipulation. So instead, there is still plenty of money into the debt section, the bonds. And the money will slowly flow from debt to real estate, debt to stocks, maybe debt will be your cash. This is how the central bank's trigger the money down the line. Of course over the long term, the purple pile will
start to go back to normal It will look like that all over again. The difference is, inflation will occur. Roughly how does inflation occur? If you take this and draw
this, make it bigger. This is exactly how inflation looks like, Is basically the same pie. So this pie over here does
the same amount of houses, nothing changed just that
houses got more expensive. If you look at another stock section here, the amount of stocks didn't go up. In fact, just the stocks
got more expensive. So this is generally how
inflation looks like. It is the same pie, but bigger. This is why I've been telling you many, many times that hyperinflation will happen in the stock market. I know there'll be a V-shaped recovery, and it's very important for all of us to invest in the stock market. Concluding this video. No one could have ever predicted most of the events listed in the charts nor they could have predicted the degree to which markets would react. It is impossible again to
consistently predict the market. If you watch the movie,
"Wolf of Wall Street" Yeah, there are a few people, they predicted the oil online crisis, but where are they now? They're probably having
shitty performance. One of them is a Tesla shop anyway. Most investors fall into
the trap of worrying about bad things happening
somewhere in the world or believing that there is something like detrimental on the horizon. Ultimately, stock market is made out of billions of people who are investing for different reasons
and at different times. So no one can consistently
and accurately predict what events on how the
markets would respond. But as the chart reflects, investors who don't panic or try to time the markets
will fare much better. I did a view in fact two
videos part one and part two, on timing the markets. Again, I appreciate those who
help me with the thumbs up. You are awesome for helping
me grow this channel. Invest, safe. (upbeat music)